When the Skies Speak Again: Preparing East Africa for the Next El Niño While Safeguarding Agenda 2063

Flood effects in Nakasongola due to rising Lake Kyoga water levels in 2020 (📷JEEP)

Three years ago, many East Africans watched the sky with hope.

After months of prolonged dry spells and poor harvests, dark clouds finally gathered over villages from western Uganda to northern Tanzania, across Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Ethiopia. Farmers welcomed the rains, believing that a better season had arrived. Yet within weeks, many communities were battling floods, landslides, damaged roads, destroyed crops, disease outbreaks and displacement. In some areas, rainfall remained below average, highlighting that El Niño impacts communities differently depending on local geography and climate (WMO, 2024; IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), 2024).

Those experiences should not be forgotten.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) indicates that El Niño is expected to dominate global climate patterns during the August–October (ASO) 2026 season, increasing the likelihood of significant weather anomalies across many regions (WMO, 2026). Although the exact impacts will vary across East Africa, the forecast provides governments, businesses and communities with a valuable opportunity to prepare before disasters occur.

Preparing for El Niño is not only about reducing disaster losses—it is also about protecting Africa's long-term development ambitions. The African Union's Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want envisions "a prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development." Yet climate extremes continue to threaten food systems, public health, water security, energy access and livelihoods that underpin this vision (African Union, 2015). Recognising this challenge, the Africa Climate Change Strategy 2020–2030 identifies climate resilience as fundamental to achieving the aspirations of Agenda 2063 by strengthening the continent's capacity to anticipate, adapt to and recover from climate shocks (African Union Commission, 2020).

For East Africa, preparedness should begin with the people whose livelihoods depend most on the climate—smallholder farmers.

Agriculture employs nearly 60–70% of East Africa's labour force and provides food and income for millions (World Bank, 2024). Communities can reduce climate risks by planting drought- and flood-tolerant crop varieties, staggering planting dates according to seasonal forecasts, conserving soil moisture through mulching, improving farm drainage, and investing in rainwater harvesting. Community grain stores and seed banks can strengthen food security when extreme weather disrupts harvests (FAO, 2024). Extension workers should also ensure that seasonal climate information reaches farmers in local languages through radio, mobile phones and farmer field schools. Protecting agricultural livelihoods today strengthens the resilient and productive food systems envisioned under Agenda 2063.

Energy systems also deserve attention.

Across East Africa, decentralised renewable energy—particularly solar-powered irrigation, cold storage and agro-processing—is transforming rural livelihoods and creating new economic opportunities. However, floods can damage solar infrastructure, while prolonged cloud cover may temporarily reduce solar electricity generation. Communities should protect solar installations, elevate batteries above flood levels, maintain backup energy systems and improve maintenance of mini-grids. Hydropower operators should also strengthen reservoir management to balance electricity generation with flood control (International Energy Agency, 2025). Building resilient clean energy systems supports Agenda 2063's ambition of sustainable industrialisation and inclusive economic transformation.

Health is another frontline of climate resilience.

Following the 2023–2024 El Niño, several East African countries experienced increases in cholera, malaria, dengue and other climate-sensitive diseases, largely driven by flooding and contaminated water supplies (WHO, 2024). Communities can prepare by clearing drainage channels, eliminating stagnant water, improving sanitation, treating drinking water and strengthening disease surveillance. Local health facilities should stock essential medicines and emergency supplies before peak rainfall begins. Protecting public health is essential for maintaining productive communities and advancing sustainable development across the continent.

Water and sanitation are equally critical.

Floods frequently contaminate wells, boreholes and piped water systems while damaging sanitation infrastructure. Protecting wetlands, restoring degraded watersheds, planting trees along riverbanks, desilting drainage systems and promoting household rainwater harvesting can reduce flood risks while increasing water availability during subsequent dry periods (UN-Water, 2024). These nature-based solutions strengthen ecosystem resilience while contributing to biodiversity conservation and climate adaptation—key pillars of Agenda 2063.

Perhaps the greatest lesson from the 2023–2024 El Niño is that resilience is built collectively.

Governments can strengthen early warning systems, but communities remain the first responders. Women's groups, youth organisations, farmer cooperatives, faith-based institutions, local governments, civil society organisations and the private sector all play indispensable roles in sharing information, protecting vulnerable households and coordinating local preparedness. The United Nations' Early Warnings for All Initiative, led by WMO and partners, reminds us that early warnings only save lives when they lead to early action (WMO, 2026).

Scientists cannot stop El Niño.

Communities, however, can reduce its impacts.

The story East Africa writes during the August–October 2026 season does not have to mirror that of 2023–2024. By combining scientific forecasts with indigenous knowledge, investing in climate-resilient livelihoods and acting before disaster strikes, communities can transform climate risk into an opportunity to build safer, healthier and more prosperous societies. In doing so, they will not only protect lives and livelihoods today but also help realise Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want. As the African Union Climate Change Strategy (2020–2030) emphasises, building resilience to climate change is indispensable to achieving Africa's long-term vision of inclusive growth, sustainable development and shared prosperity for future generations.

References

·         African Union. (2015). Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want.

·         African Union Commission. (2020). Africa Climate Change Strategy 2020–2030.

·         FAO. (2024). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2024.

·         ICPAC. (2024). Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum Reports.

·         International Energy Agency. (2025). Africa Energy Outlook 2025.

·         UN-Water. (2024). United Nations World Water Development Report 2024.

·         World Bank. (2024). Agriculture and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa.

·         World Health Organization. (2024). Climate Change and Health: East Africa Situation Reports.

·         World Meteorological Organization. (2024). State of the Climate in Africa 2023.

·         World Meteorological Organization. (2026). El Niño/La Niña Update and Global Seasonal Climate Update (August–October 2026).