The High Cost of Waiting
When the rains finally arrived in late 2023, many
communities across East Africa welcomed them with relief after months of
prolonged drought. But that relief quickly turned into despair. Rivers burst
their banks, roads disappeared under floodwaters, homes collapsed, crops were
washed away, livestock perished, and families were displaced. According to the
World Meteorological Organisation (WMO, 2024), the 2023–2024 El Niño event triggered widespread flooding and humanitarian crises across Eastern Africa, highlighting the
vulnerability of millions of people whose lives and livelihoods depend on
climate-sensitive sectors.
The human suffering was matched by a heavy economic toll. Nearly one million people across Burundi, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania were affected by severe flooding during the peak of the event (UNICEF, 2024).
In Tanzania alone, El Niño-related floods caused an estimated US$69 million in crop losses and US$62 million in livestock losses—more than US$130 million in direct agricultural damages (FAO, WFP, & Government of Tanzania, 2024).
Across Kenya, governments spent billions of Kenyan shillings repairing damaged roads, bridges, schools and public infrastructure, while businesses and farming households suffered significant losses.
More broadly, climate-related disasters
cost African countries between 2 and 5 percent of GDP annually, with some
governments spending up to 9 percent of their national budgets responding to
climate shocks (WMO, 2024). These figures demonstrate that investing in early
warning systems is far less expensive than rebuilding after disasters.
Another El Niño Is on the Horizon
Today, East Africa once again faces an uncertain future. The World Meteorological Organization's Global Seasonal Climate Update projects that El Niño is expected to dominate global climate patterns during the August–October (ASO) 2026 season, increasing the likelihood of significant weather anomalies across many regions, including East Africa (WMO, 2026).
Although forecasts cannot stop storms, they provide communities with valuable
time to prepare—if the information reaches them in a form they understand and
trust.
When a Forecast Doesn't Reach the
People
Sarah, a smallholder farmer in Entebbe near Lake Victoria, still remembers hearing a radio announcement warning of "above-normal rainfall" before the 2023 floods. The forecast sounded technical and distant, so she continued planting as usual.
Within weeks,
floodwaters destroyed her bean and maize fields, and her family sought refuge
in a nearby school. Looking back, she reflects, "If someone had
explained what the forecast meant for our village, we would have harvested
early and moved our belongings."
Sarah's experience highlights a critical lesson: climate
information alone does not save lives—people-centred climate information
services do (World Bank, 2021).
Making Climate Information
Understandable and Actionable
Scientific forecasts must be translated into practical guidance that helps communities make timely decisions. Rather than announcing "above-average precipitation," weather services should advise farmers to harvest mature crops early, pastoralists to relocate livestock from flood-prone grazing areas, local leaders to clear drainage channels, and families to prepare emergency supplies (WMO, 2022).
Radio
stations, SMS alerts, social media, religious institutions, village meetings
and local leaders remain among the most trusted communication channels.
Strengthening Community-Based
Early Warning Systems
Communities need stronger early warning systems that connect national forecasts with local realities. Agricultural extension officers, community health workers, disaster management committees, women's groups and indigenous knowledge holders can work alongside meteorological agencies to interpret forecasts and support local preparedness.
Research shows
that warnings delivered through trusted local networks are more likely to
trigger early action (UNDRR, 2015).
Linking Forecasts to Early Action
Climate information should immediately trigger
practical preparedness measures. These include reinforcing riverbanks,
protecting water sources, pre-positioning emergency relief supplies, adjusting
planting calendars, vaccinating livestock, safeguarding schools and health
facilities, and strengthening climate-smart agricultural practices (FAO, 2023).
Every warning should answer four practical questions:
- What
is likely to happen?
- Who
is most at risk?
- What
actions should be taken?
- When
should those actions begin?
Leaving No One Behind
Women, older persons, persons with disabilities,
refugees, fisherfolk, pastoralists and people living in informal settlements
often face the greatest climate risks while receiving warnings last. Inclusive
climate information services must therefore be accessible, timely, culturally
appropriate and available in local languages to ensure no community is left
behind (UNDRR, 2015).
Investing in Climate Information
Is Investing in Resilience
The United Nations' Early Warnings for All Initiative seeks to ensure that every person on Earth is protected by effective early warning systems by 2027 (United Nations, 2023). Achieving this ambition in East Africa requires stronger partnerships among meteorological agencies, local governments, universities, civil society, humanitarian organisations, development partners, the media and communities.
It also requires sustained
investment in weather observation networks, digital technologies, climate
literacy and community engagement.
Scaling climate information services supports Africa's
Agenda 2063, advances the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction,
and accelerates progress towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,
particularly SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities
and Communities) (African Union Commission, 2015; United Nations, 2015;
UNDRR, 2015).
A Call to Act Before the Storm
The skies may once again signal the arrival of El
Niño. This time, East Africa has an opportunity to transform forecasts into
action. When climate information reaches every village, every household and
every decision-maker in ways that are timely, trusted and practical, it becomes
far more than a weather report—it becomes a powerful investment in saving
lives, protecting livelihoods and building stronger, more resilient
communities.
Rather than waiting for disaster to strike, the region must invest in people-centred climate information services that empower communities to act early. The next El Niño should not become another humanitarian crisis—it should become a testament to the power of preparedness.
References
African Union
Commission. (2015). Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want.
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations. (2023). The State of Food and
Agriculture 2023.
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations, World Food Programme, & Government of
Tanzania. (2024). Post-El Niño Rapid Agricultural Damage and Needs
Assessment, Tanzania.
United Nations. (2015).
Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
United Nations. (2023).
Early Warnings for All: Executive Action Plan 2023–2027.
United Nations
Children's Fund. (2024). Eastern and Southern Africa Humanitarian Situation
Report: El Niño Floods.
United Nations Office
for Disaster Risk Reduction. (2015). Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction 2015–2030.
World Bank. (2021). Climate
Risk Country Profiles and Climate Information Services.
World Meteorological
Organization. (2022). State of Climate Services 2022: Energy.
World Meteorological
Organization. (2024). State of the Climate in Africa 2023.
World Meteorological Organization. (2026). Global Seasonal Climate Update: August–October 2026.
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